The Cyclone Warning Division of the India Meteorological Department said the depression over Southeast Bay of Bengal and neighbourhood moved northwestwards with a speed of 16 kmph during past 06 hours and lay centred at 1130 hrs IST today.
It is very likely to intensify into a Cyclonic Storm during the next 12 hours and further into a severe cyclonic storm during the subsequent 24 hours. It is very likely to move north-northwestwards initially on May 17 and then re-curve north-northeastwards across the northwest Bay of Bengal towards West Bengal and adjoining Odisha coasts from May 18 to 20, 2020.
Forecast track and intensity are given in the following table:
|Date/Time(IST)||Position (Lat. 0N/ long. 0E)||Maximum sustained surface wind speed (Kmph)||Category of cyclonic disturbance|
|16.05.20/1130||10.9/86.3||45-55 gusting to 65||Depression|
|16.05.20/1730||11.2/86.2||50-60 gusting to 70||Deep Depression|
|16.05.20/2330||11.8/86.1||60-70 gusting to 80||Cyclonic Storm|
|17.05.20/0530||12.3/86.0||80-90 gusting to 100||Cyclonic Storm|
|17.05.20/1130||12.8/86.0||100-110 gusting to 120||Severe Cyclonic Storm|
|17.05.20/2330||13.9/86.1||105-115 gusting to 125||Severe Cyclonic Storm|
|18.05.20/1130||14.9/86.1||120-130 gusting to 145||Very Severe Cyclonic Storm|
|18.05.20/2330||16.0/86.2||135-145 gusting to 160||Very Severe Cyclonic Storm|
|19.05.20/1130||17.4/86.5||155-165 gusting to 180||Very Severe Cyclonic Storm|
|19.05.20/2330||19.0/87.0||170-180 gusting to 200||Extremely Severe Cyclonic Storm|
|20.05.20/1130||20.8/87.5||160-170 gusting to 190||Extremely Severe Cyclonic Storm|
|20.05.20/2330||22.9/88.2||145-155 gusting to 170||Very Severe Cyclonic Storm|
|21.05.20/1130||25.0/88.7||110-120 gusting to 135||Severe Cyclonic Storm|
(i) Rainfall (over Andaman & Nicobar Islands):
- Light to moderate rainfall at most places with heavy falls at isolated places is very likely over Andaman & Nicobar Islands.
- Rainfall (over Odisha & Gangetic West Bengal)
Coastal Odisha is likely to experience light to moderate rainfall at many places with heavy falls at isolated places from May 18 evening, heavy to very heavy rainfalls at a few places on May 19, and isolated heavy rainfall over northeast Odisha on 20th May 2020. Coastal districts of Gangetic West Bengal are likely to experience light to moderate rainfall at many places with heavy falls at a few places on May 19, heavy to very heavy falls at a few places with extremely heavy falls at isolated places over Gangetic West Bengal on May 20.
(ii) Wind warning
Squally wind speed reaching 45 to 55 kmph gusting to 65 kmph is prevailing over the southeast and adjoining the southwest Bay of Bengal. It is likely to increase becoming 90-100 gusting to 110 kmph over east-central and adjoining west-central Bay of Bengal by 17th morning, 120-130 gusting to 145 kmph over southern parts of central Bay of Bengal by 18th morning, 155-165 gusting to 180 kmph over northern parts of central Bay of Bengal and adjoining north Bay of Bengal on 19th, and 160-170 gusting to 190 kmph over north Bay of Bengal by 20th morning.
(iii) Sea condition
Sea condition will be rough to very rough over south & adjoining the central Bay of Bengal and the Andaman Sea till 16th May evening. It will be High over southwest and adjoining the central Bay of Bengal from the 16th May night, very high over the same region from 17th morning. It will become phenomenal over southern parts of central Bay of Bengal on 18th, over northern parts of central Bay of Bengal and adjoining north Bay of Bengal on 19th May and over north Bay of Bengal on 20th May 2020.
(iv) Fishermen Warning
- The fishermen are advised not to venture into the South Bay of Bengal from May 16-20, 2020.
- Also, fishermen are advised not to venture into north Bay of Bengal along and off North Odisha, West Bengal and adjoining Bangladesh coast from 18 to 20 May 2020.