The Deep Depression over southwest Bay of Bengal moved west-northwestwards with a speed of 05 kmph during past 06 hours, intensified into a Cyclonic Strom “NIVAR” and lay centred at 0530 hrs IST today over southwest Bay of Bengal near about 410 km east-southeast of Puducherry and 450 km southeast of Chennai.
It is very likely to intensify further into a severe cyclonic storm during next 24 hours and move towards west-northwestwards for the next 12 hours and then northwestwards to cross Tamil Nadu and Puducherry coasts between Karaikal and Mamallapuram around Puducherry during tomorrow evening as a severe cyclonic storm with a wind speed of 100-110 kmph gusting to 120 kmph.
(i) Forecast track and intensity are given below:
(ii) Wind warning
- Gale wind speed reaching 65-75 kmph gusting to 85 kmph is prevailing over Southwest Bay of Bengal. It would further increase becoming 100-110 kmph gusting to 120 kmph over the southwest Bay of Bengal from 25th November morning for subsequent 18 hours.
- Squally wind speed reaching 30-40 kmph gusting to 50 kmph is prevailing along & off Tamil Nadu, Puducherry and adjoining South Andhra Pradesh coast and over Gulf of Mannar. It will gradually increase and becomE 100-110 kmph gusting to 120 kmph along & off coastal districts of north Tamil Nadu and Puducherry (Nagapattinam, Karaikal, Myladuthurai, Cuddalore, Puducherry, Villupuram & Chengalpattu districts; 80-90 gusting to 100 kmph very likely over Tiruvarur, Kanchipuram, Chennai, Tiruvallaur districts) during forenoon tonight of November 25, 2020.
- Gale wind speed reaching 65-75 kmph gusting to 85 kmph very likely over adjoining the west-central Bay of Bengal and along & off South Andhra Pradesh (Nellore & Chittoor districts), Gulf of Mannar and along and off districts of south coastal districts of Tamil Nadu during forenoon tonight of November 25, 2020.
(iii) Sea condition
- Sea condition is high over Southwest Bay of Bengal and rough to very rough along & off Tamil Nadu, Puducherry, south Andhra Pradesh coasts and over Gulf of Mannar. It would gradually become very high over the southwest Bay of Bengal from November 24th, night.
- The sea condition would be very high over the southwest and adjoining the west-central Bay of Bengal and along & off north Tamil Nadu, Puducherry coasts and high along and off south Tamil Nadu & South Andhra Pradesh coasts and also over Gulf of Mannar on November 25, 2020.
(iv) Strom Surge Warning
- The tidal wave of about 1m height above the astronomical tide is very likely to inundate the low lying areas of north coastal districts of Tamilnadu & Puducherry near the place of landfall.
(v) Damage expected over and Action suggested over coastal districts of Tamilnadu & Puducherry and adjoining Andhra Pradesh:
- Major damage to thatched houses/ huts with the possibility of rooftops being blown off and unattached metal sheets may fly.
- Damage to power and communication lines.
- Major damage to Kutcha and some damage to Pucca roads. Flooding of escape routes.
- Breaking of tree branches, uprooting of large avenue trees. Severe damage to banana and papaya trees, horticulture and crops & orchards. Large dead limbs blown from trees.
- Major damage to coastal crops.
- Damage to embankments/ salt pans.
(vi) Fishermen Warning & Action Suggested:
- Total suspension of fishing operations.
- Fishermen are advised not to venture into Southwest & adjoining west-central & the southeast Bay of Bengal, Gulf of Mannar and along & off Tamil Nadu, Puducherry and south Andhra Pradesh coasts during 24-25th November.
- Fishermen out at Sea are advised to return to the coast and avoid the above sea area.
- Coastal hutment dwellers to be moved to safer places. People in affected areas to remain indoors. Movement in motorboats unsafe.
