IMD predicts above normal temperature this summer

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The National Weather Forecasting Centre of the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) has predicted that the temperatures are likely to be more than the above normal seasonal maximum temperature during the upcoming summer season from March to May 2021.

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This will prevail in most part of the subdivisions of north, northwest and northeast India, few subdivisions from eastern and western parts of central India and few coastal subdivisions of north peninsular India. However, below normal seasonal maximum temperatures are likely over most of the subdivisions of the south peninsula and adjoining central India.

Above normal seasonal minimum temperatures are likely over most of the subdivisions of north India along the foothills of the Himalayas, northeast India, the western part of central India and the southern part of peninsular India. However, below-normal season minimum temperatures are likely over most of the subdivisions of the eastern part of central India and few subdivisions of the extreme northern part of the country.

Since 2016, India Meteorological Department (IMD), has been issuing seasonal forecast outlooks for subdivision scale temperatures over the country for both hot and cold weather seasons based on predictions from the Monsoon Mission Coupled Forecasting System (MMCFS) Model developed under the monsoon mission project, launched by Ministry of Earth Sciences (MoES).

IMD has now prepared a Seasonal outlook for the subdivision averaged temperatures for the upcoming summer season between March and May 2021 and the same is presented here.

The MMCFS has a spatial resolution of about 38 km and improved modules of model physics. The model climatology was prepared based on retrospective forecasts for 16 years (2003-2018). The seasonal temperature forecast outlook was prepared using MMCFS simulations based on the 2021 February initial conditions. The forecast was prepared using 31 ensemble member forecasts. The model hindcasts and forecasts were bias-corrected using the probability distribution function (pdf) method. The model hindcasts show moderate skill over many subdivisions over northwest and central India during the period 2003-2018.

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