The present financial crisis may deepen further if lockdown is extended for another 15 days or one month. But is there any way out from this crisis?
It seems that the Central Government is taking views of all political parties leaders and all CMs in order to avoid blame game in this later. Odisha government has already extended lockdown till April 30th without any hesitation.
The situation is different in different states. In Uttar Pradesh, only 15 districts are affected now, then why to close other 35 districts comprising of 12 crore population. Similarly in Bihar and MP, 15% of districts are Carona Free.
Same is the case in AP, two districts Vizianagaram and Srikakulam are free from Carona. Similarly large part of Prakasam, East Godavari and Chittoor districts are also free from Carona. In such a case, lockdown may be a loss to public and government Exchequer as well.
The revenue loss for state governments from Liquor sale, petroleum products, registration of properties and GST may dwindle further. The states depending on the travel and tourism like Goa, Kerala, Ladakh, Delhi, Maharastra & Karnataka will suffer more as fewer foreigners are to visit till next year. Airlines and Star hotels also suffer at least 40% occupancy till next year.
Stress will be there on all state governments to increase Medical facilities by reducing subsidies. Pharma sector improves a lot. Contract works volumes reduce around 50% creating local labour unemployment.
- Fees for many schools and colleges in the private sector will be reduced by 30%.
- Textile business, jute mills may slow down by 30% in this year.
- Automobile industry picks up as people reduce dependency on Ola and Uber. Maruti Suzuki again will be in top gear.
- Manufacturers depending on import of raw materials will lose business by 50% as they have to search for alternatives. Around 500 industries and services will be on Alt+Cont+Del for another six months.
- China will see a huge recession in the next five years continuously as many leaders expressed their unhappy on the delayed declaration of Virus.
- Agriculture production is good this year. Agri oriented industries will survive.
Though the above is ostensibly bound to take place, still we have the edge to overcome the crisis. However, experts are predicting the huge downfall of Economy due to the Corona. I do not know much about these experts predictions, but I know for sure that they do not know anything about the value of human motivation and determined efforts.
If experts were to be believed, after the total destruction in 2nd World War Japan should have NO future. BUT same Japan in just 3 decades or so, made US cry at the market place.
If the experts were to be believed, Israel should have been wiped out from the world map by the Arabs, but the fact is different.
As per the rules of Aerodynamics, the Bumble Bee can NOT fly. But it flies because it does not know the rules of Aerodynamics.
If the experts were to be believed, we should have been nowhere in the 1983 Cricket World Cup. If the experts were to be believed Wilma Rudolf, the first American lady to win 4 Olympic Gold in Athletics, should not have been in a position to walk without braces, no question of running.
If the experts were to be believed Arunima Sinha can hardly lead a normal life. But she climbed the Mount Everest.
The corona crisis is no different. I do not have any doubt that India will defeat the Corona hands down and the Indian Economy will bounce back in a great manner.